Pakistan’s shot at making it to the T20 World Cup semifinal is hanging by a thread following New Zealand’s win over Sri Lanka on Wednesday.
The Kiwis, who trounced the co-hosts by 61 runs in Colombo, significantly improved their Net Run Rate (NRR) to +3.050 and are now clear favourites to qualify for the semi-finals from Group 2 along with England.
Pakistan, who are currently third in the table, must win their final Super 8s match against Sri Lanka on Saturday.
Pakistan’s NRR is -0.461 and they need to beat Sri Lanka by 70 runs in their last game in the tournament. “What they are counting on,” she said, “is England beating New Zealand. The extent of England’s victory will matter a lot for Pakistan’s qualification scenario.
Interesting equation
If England’s meeting with New Zealand is rained off, the Kiwis will move onto the semi-finals. If England do it by 20 runs, then Pakistan would need a 50-run win over Sri Lanka to guarantee a place in the last four.
Though the equation is far from simple, it is not completely impossible.
If Sri Lanka bat first, it becomes even harder. If Sri Lanka scored 200, Pakistan must surpass that in fewer than 15 overs. More realistically, if the target is about 150, Pakistan will have to chase down in less than 14 overs for their NRR to get a sufficient boost.
The advantage Pakistan has is clarity, with England facing New Zealand a day before they play. That will help Pakistan know what the margin they need before they step on the field against Sri Lanka.